NFL straight-up picks, Week 9: How did the trade deadline affect a week of toss-up games? (2024)

Picking the Chiefs last week was supposed to right the ship. Instead we scuttled it and suddenly Russell Wilson has positive momentum. Whoops.

This pick is veering toward risky, but I really like Atlanta’s chances against a Vikings team that suddenly has to play out 2023 without the resurgent quarterback who’d led them back to .500 after a 1-3 start. The Falcons have swapped out Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke, a lateral-seeming move that should, at the very least, add some stability to the offense.

Ridder was actually a more accurate deep ball thrower than his replacement this year (Heinicke completed 42.3 percent of his deep tosses in 2022, Ridder’s at 50 percent), so this may not be the blessing for which Drake London and Kyle Pitts had hoped. But Heinicke also won’t approach the 14 fumbles and interceptions the second-year QB chalked up in 7.5 games to start the year, which should benefit a team that’s still good enough to play .500 ball even while losing the turnover battle.

Minnesota will counter with either fifth round rookie Jaren Hall or the recently acquired Joshua Dobbs, neither of whom is especially inspiring. Hall’s dual-threat viability will be an asset and he won’t have to worry about Grady Jarrett (out for the season due to injury), but there’s still a veteran Falcons defense waiting to welcome him to the NFL. That’s rarely a story with a happy ending.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 6-2 (.750)

This section’s continued success — 7-1 at roughly the season’s halfway mark — feels like being really good at calling coin tosses. And such, we’re probably due for a regression.

It it starts here, it’s thanks to an inscrutable game. The Raiders have no head coach or offensive coordinator. Jimmy Garoppolo has been benched for Aidan O’Connell, a fourth round rookie who has averaged 4.4 net yards per dropback in relief duty in two games this fall. Davante Adams is annoyed with all of this and Josh Jacobs is simply over it.

The Giants traded away one of their best defenders in Leonard Williams. Daniel Jones is cleared to return to the lineup after a neck injury, but he could be hampered by its lingering effects and, even while healthy remains Daniel Jones. If he misses time the burden falls on Tommy DeVito, whose average dropback in Week 8 averaged -1.1 yards of field position.

So … huh. I guess we’re just rolling with home field advantage? Or maybe we’re keeping an eye on things and possibly switching up this pick as we learn more. Either way, woof.

And hey, props to the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers for waging their own ugly, impossible to predict game.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 7-1 (.875)

This isn’t my pick — in fact, I’m all chalk this week, which is one way to go when you stare down a bunch of 50/50 nonsense games and have no reaction but to shrug. The rest of the field barring Meghan, however, is on the Commanders. This will either make us look brilliant or, owing to the last time I went against the consensus with the Pats (vs. the New Orleans Saints), incredibly stupid.

I get the New England doubt. Mac Jones remains quarterback and now trudges into the midway point of his final season as a starter without top weapon Kendrick Bourne (torn ACL). But Washington waved a big ‘ol white flag on the 2023 season (and potentially the Ron Rivera, uh, era) by trading away its top two edge rushers at the deadline in exchange for draft considerations.

While Bill Belichick is effectively coated in flaws at this point, one thing he still does well is baffle young, shaky quarterbacks. Sam Howell has exceeded expectations, but his lack of consistency has played a big role in the Commanders’ sub-.500 start. And while Washington is clearly looking ahead to next year’s draft, the Patriots’ lack of deadline moves suggest they are not. So give me the Pats — but y’all can take Howell and Rivera and laugh at me when Mac Jones’ offense scores nine points Sunday.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 6-2 (.750)